"U.S. OUTLOOK IS ONE OF NEAR-TERM WEAKNESS AND LONG TERM STRENGTH’ anyone puzzled by recent economic numbers is not alone,they can be contradictory and confusing sometimes and as we have learned in the past consumers spending habits usually run hand in hand with the consumer confidence index.Everyday their is good news and then the next paragraph that will have news that is not so good. Most Americans are reducing their debt right now with the extra cash they have,if they are fortunate to have any in lieu of spending freely,
Businesses are cautious about hiring and expanding until they get a clear signal that consumer spending is back to where it was,reduced debt and rising home prices will eventually boost consumer spending,consumer spending needs the business community to start hiring and giving out raises that exceed the cost-of-living index,so who blinks first,consumers need businesses to start spending money and the businesses need the consumers to start spending money.
SEPTEMBER HOUSING LOOKS SOLID,CONSTRUCTION GAIN MAY BUOY U.S. ECONOMY
A recovery in home construction is building strength helping the economy instead of dragging it down,according to IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT the September housing permits far exceeded the expectations in all four regions,the northeast was the lowest but it was 15 percent higher than September of 2011.The Commerce Department reported that housing permits are less volatile than starts and more reflective of future work and they were up 11.6 percent in all four regions,those are strong numbers real strong. With 114,000 new jobs created in September those are the positive numbers that economist have been hoping for. Housing typically leads the U.S. out of a recession it has not done so in this one and the only reason I can come up with is because housing is what caused this recession and that has never happened before,this is called the biggest recession since the great depression,and that is true.
Home construction is closely watched because it’s labor intensive,since losing two million jobs after the housing crash it has been a slow and painful recovery.Last year their were only 434,000 single-family homes built ,that was the worst year on record, so this year each quarter is between 10 and 20 percent increase over last year as you can see we have a ways to go to get back to where we were.But with seven months in a row with an increase,even a slight increase or a large increase we are on the way back.September auto sales were the best month the auto business has had this year in United States and Canada, With last weeks unemployment number taking a huge leap forward,the naysayers were out in force accusing the Obama administration of playing games with the number,with only three weeks to go before the Presidential election some people were questioning how the unemployment percentage could fall below 8 percent for the first time since Obama was elected. The next one that matters comes out three days before the election, if that number takes a huge tumble down than we can all start to wonder.